The past year registered record-shattering global temperatures. People around the world are already witnessing epic heat waves, wildfires and drought at 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of global warming, compared to pre-industrial averages. With current policies putting the world on a trajectory for 2.5 degrees C to 2.9 degrees C (up to 5 degrees F) of warming by 2100, this year’s sweltering heat is just a glimpse of the future ahead.
In a warming world, cities face an even greater burden of higher temperatures than rural areas. For one, they hold most of the world’s population. Their exposure to high temperatures is amplified by the urban heat island effect, where buildings, concrete and other infrastructure trap heat. Density, air pollution, poverty and geography further increase the vulnerability of many people in cities.
So what exactly will warmer global temperatures mean for city residents’ exposure to excessive heat? We need better data to say with precision, but global-scale models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) start to paint a picture.
Big Differences in Urban Heat Effects from 1.5 Degrees C vs. 3 Degrees C of Warming
According to the IPCC, life-threatening heat and humidity are expected to impact between half to three-fourths of the global population by 2100. Cities, which currently hold more than half the world’s population and will add another 2.5 billion people by 2050, will be exposed to double the level of heat stress compared to rural surroundings. (…)
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